Educational Disclaimer

Monetary Model is an educational tool for understanding how the U.S. monetary system is wired and how policy choices propagate through it. It is designed for students, teachers, and curious citizens. It is not a research-grade forecasting model and should not be treated as one.

Nothing on this site is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, currency, commodity or other asset, or to take any financial action. We are not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, bank or financial institution, and no adviser-client relationship is created by using the Service. Consult a licensed professional about your own circumstances.

• Deterministic runs show one path produced by a stylized, stock-flow-consistent model under fixed assumptions. Change an assumption and the path changes.
• Monte Carlo "fan" charts show ranges produced by randomly perturbing the model's own parameters. The percentile bands describe the model's uncertainty about itself — not the probability of real-world events.
• "Failure probabilities" and "breakdown flags" count how often a model run crossed a threshold we chose. They are diagnostic labels inside the simulation, not predictions of an actual crisis.
• Regime comparisons apply historical rule sets to a modern starting point. They are thought experiments, not counterfactual history.

Historical descriptions, dates and figures are researched against canonical sources and presented in both a Teaching (undergraduate) and Analytical (graduate) register. We correct errors when we find them, but the content is a synthesis, not a primary source. Historical quotations are presented for debate and context; attribution may be paraphrased where noted. Caricature artwork is original editorial illustration, not a photograph or official likeness.

We do not warrant that any output, statistic or description is accurate, complete or current. Calibration values reflect published estimates as of the engine version shown in the app and may lag real-world data.

Found a factual mistake? Email monetarymodel@oandpadvisoryservices.com with the map, node or metric and your source. We appreciate it.